Table des matières
Explore 2025 real estate trends in Montreal and the South Shore, including impacts of new mortgage rules and lower interest rates on homeownership and investments.
In 2025, the Montreal and South Shore real estate market is driven by six consecutive Bank of Canada key rate cuts, bringing the rate to 3%, and new federal mortgage rules effective December 15, 2024. Key measures include: a 30-year maximum amortization period for all first-time buyers, a CMHC insurable limit raised to $1,500,000, and a Home Buyers' Plan withdrawal ceiling of $60,000 per person. Royal LePage forecasts a 6.5% aggregate price increase in Greater Montreal by Q4 2025, with demand continuing to outpace a limited housing supply.
Key Facts
- Real estate transactions in December 2024 jumped 54% compared to December 2023.
- The Bank of Canada's key rate was lowered to 3% after six consecutive cuts.
- The aggregate price in Greater Montreal is forecast to reach $655,082 in Q4 2025, up 6.5%.
- The CMHC insurable property limit increased from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000.
- The Home Buyers' Plan (HBP) withdrawal limit was raised from $35,000 to $60,000 (up to $120,000 for couples).
Introduction
The end of 2024 was marked by a series of measures, both in terms of Canadian monetary policy and measures promoting access to property, directly impacting the real estate market in Quebec in 2025.
In addition to the six consecutive reductions in the Bank of Canada's key rate, the last of which was announced on January 29 2025, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) announced new mortgage rules, which we will return to in detail in this article, and they came into force on December 15, 2024.
Among these new mortgage rules:
- Some buyers will have access to a more extended amortization period.
- The increase in the value of homes for sale insurable by CMHC, thus reducing the down payment required of buyers.
- Those who renew their mortgage in 2025 and who decide to transfer their mortgage will no longer have to undergo a crisis simulation.
- The withdrawal ceiling for the Home Ownership Plan (RAP) has been considerably increased, and the grace period for its repayment has been extended.
The real estate market in the Montreal metropolitan region, including the South Shore, closed in 2024 with a sharp increase in real estate transactions recorded in December.
They jumped 54% compared to December 2023.
In this article, I analyze how all these recent changes will affect homeownership, house prices, and real estate activity in 2025.
With these changes, there is a potential for increased real estate activity, offering opportunities for those who want to buy or sell a house in 2025 or invest in an income property.
New policies and economic indicators that affect the real estate market in 2025
How the new mortgage rules will help Quebecers buy a house in Montreal and on the South Shore
To facilitate Canadian buyers' access to property, the federal government has implemented several measures, including new mortgage rules. Among these:
- The extended amortization period of 30 years for all first-time buyers is a significant benefit.
This measure, applicable to new homes, condominiums, and resale properties, provides a sense of financial security by reducing the amount of mortgage payments.
It's a step towards making home ownership more achievable for Quebecers. - The increase in the maximum value of property insurable by CMHC from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 is a reason for optimism.
This change reduces the down payment required for a house worth more than a million dollars, making it more accessible to buyers.
By increasing the insurance eligibility threshold, the down payment is 5% up to $500,000 and 10% for the excess amount.
For a $1,500,000 home, the down payment goes from $300,000 to $125,000. - Homeowners who renew their mortgage in 2025 and wish to transfer it to another lender will no longer have to undergo a stress test.
This empowering measure allows many Quebec and Canadian owners to reassess their needs and choose a suitable lender without the stress of a mortgage stress test.
One of the conditions is not to modify the loan amount or the amortization period. - The Home Ownership Plan (PAR) withdrawal limit increases from $35,000 to $60,000.
It can, therefore, reach $120,000 for buyers. This measure allows first-time home buyers to withdraw up to $60,000 from their RRSP without paying taxes to finance their down payment.
The authorized repayment period is always 15 years. However, the grace period to start repayment increases to 5 years. This measure aims to help first-time buyers access property.
Impact of the drop in the key rate on the real estate market in Montreal
The Bank of Canada lowered its key rate for the sixth consecutive time by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3%.
A slight economic slowdown and a slight increase in unemployment justify this drop.
With the recent drop in the key rate, one can't help but wonder: what does the future hold for interest rates in 2025?
This reduction in the key rate translates into a decrease in the cost of credit and, therefore, an increase in real estate activity.
This is particularly encouraging for first-time buyers and investors, who can expect more favorable conditions in the market.
Further cuts in the key rate are expected in 2025, reinforcing the positive outlook for the market and instilling confidence in investors.
Real estate market trends in Montreal and the South Shore in 2025
An evaluation of the prices of houses for sale in the greater Montreal area and on the South Shore
Despite the relief generated by the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada and the measures aimed at making access to property affordable for a more significant number of citizens, the fact remains that these measures affect demand and not the supply. The number of new constructions remains well below demand, and the housing shortage persists, underscoring the urgent need for immediate action.
Even if this is the case almost everywhere in Quebec, with its rapid demographic growth, Montreal is under significant pressure, amplifying the gravity of the situation on its real estate market.
Royal Lepage forecasts: "In the greater Montreal area, the overall price of properties in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to increase by 6.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 to reach $655,082. Over the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home is expected to increase 7.5% to $750,780, while that of a condominium is expected to grow 6.0% to $507,210."
The median price of condos in Montreal increased by 6.1% in 2024 to reach $477,500 and is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025, as per a Royal Lepage study, reinforcing the inevitability of this trend.
According to a JLR study, financial accessibility remains a challenge in highly sought-after neighborhoods like Plateau-Mont-Royal and the Southwest, where prices per square foot are among the highest.
With the increase in real estate transactions, there are abundant opportunities for those wishing to purchase a home in greater Montreal
The year 2024 recorded an increase in transactions in the Montreal metropolitan area in the last quarter of 2024. According to the APCIQ barometer, total sales of residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2024 in the Montreal metro area were 10,895 properties, an increase of 48% compared to the same quarter of 2023.
The new measures adopted are designed to stimulate the market for first-time buyers, providing a sense of reassurance and confidence. Additionally, 2024 has allowed a certain rebalancing of the price of certain properties in certain neighborhoods of Montreal, more particularly in the luxury home market.
Moreover, the ongoing decline in the cost of credit, which is expected to reflect in mortgage rates in 2025, is poised to reignite investor interest in the market.
A promising year for first-time buyers and investors
For real estate buyers
The new mortgage measures, a key initiative of the federal government's policies, aim to make the real estate market more accessible to first-time buyers. However, the rise in property prices and competition in certain sought-after neighborhoods of Montreal and the South Shore are reducing the desired accessibility effect.
Moreover, the extension of the amortization period to 30 years is a double-edged sword. While it reduces the monthly payments, it also escalates the debt rate of individuals and families, as the cost of borrowing ultimately increases.
For real estate investors
The Montreal metropolitan region remains very attractive for real estate investors. Indeed, given the demographic growth experienced by Montreal and the South Shore, the demand for rental housing is constantly increasing. The demand for income properties and plexes for sale will continue to grow in 2025.
For guidance on buying a property in Montreal, our strategic buyer's guide covers every step of the process, from securing financing to signing with your notary.
The real estate market in the Montreal CMA and the South Shore in figures
Royal LePage® 2025 Market Survey Forecast Province of Quebec
| Region | Type | Q4 2024 ($) | Q4 2025 Forecast ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gatineau | Aggregate | 444,900 $ | 471,594 $ |
| Province of Quebec | Aggregate | 560,500 $ | 599,735 $ |
| Quebec City | Aggregate | 400,600 $ | 444,666 $ |
| Greater Montreal Area | Aggregate | 613,300 $ | 653,165 $ |
| Sherbrooke | Aggregate | 374,300 $ | 400,501 $ |
| Trois-Rivières | Aggregate | 362,900 $ | 377,416 $ |
Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing type transactions collected in the region. Dollar values are rounded to the nearest hundred. Data collected includes resale and new build transactions. Provincial median prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values collected in the regions studied. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and Royal LePage® regional real estate experts.
Single-family Detached
| Region | Q4 2023 Median Price | Q3 2024 Median Price | Q4 2024 Median Price | QoQ % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Montreal Area | 629,700 $ | 691,500 $ | 696,300 $ | 0.7% |
| Montreal Centre | 1,044,900 $ | 1,147,000 $ | 1,182,900 $ | 3.1% |
| Montreal East | 649,800 $ | 689,700 $ | 686,300 $ | −0.5% |
| Montreal Northshore | 493,600 $ | 536,200 $ | 550,100 $ | 2.6% |
| Montreal Southshore | 595,400 $ | 645,700 $ | 647,300 $ | 0.2% |
| Montreal West | 760,200 $ | 767,200 $ | 783,300 $ | 2.1% |
| Province of Quebec | 565,300 $ | 619,600 $ | 625,500 $ | 1.0% |
Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing type transactions collected in the region. Dollar values are rounded to the nearest hundred. Data collected includes resale and new build transactions. Provincial median prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values collected in the regions studied. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and Royal LePage® regional real estate experts.
Standard Condominiums
| Region | Q4 2023 Median Price | Q3 2024 Median Price | Q4 2024 Median Price | QoQ % Change | YoY % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Montreal Area | 450,200 $ | 467,700 $ | 477,500 $ | 2.1% | 6.1% |
| Montreal Centre | 548,600 $ | 570,700 $ | 586,400 $ | 2.8% | 6.9% |
| Montreal East | 457,100 $ | 471,200 $ | 488,000 $ | 3.6% | 6.8% |
| Montreal Northshore | 356,300 $ | 362,000 $ | 374,700 $ | 3.5% | 5.2% |
| Montreal Southshore | 386,400 $ | 408,900 $ | 422,000 $ | 3.2% | 9.2% |
| Montreal West | 388,400 $ | 411,600 $ | 401,700 $ | −2.4% | 3.4% |
| Province of Quebec | 419,700 $ | 438,400 $ | 446,200 $ | 1.8% | 6.3% |
Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing type transactions collected in the region. Dollar values are rounded to the nearest hundred. Data collected includes resale and new build transactions. Provincial median prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values collected in the regions studied. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and Royal LePage® regional real estate experts.
Other external factors that could influence the real estate market in 2025
Uncertainty caused by Canada-US relations
At the dawn of 2025, it's crucial to acknowledge the shift in the American administration's stance and the looming threat of 25% customs tariffs on Canadian products. This potential scenario could create significant economic uncertainty for the Canadian economy, leading to increased business operating costs, reduced productivity, and potential impacts on unemployment rates and economic growth.
Furthermore, the uncertainty caused by the impending federal elections is another factor that could significantly influence the real estate market in 2025.
Conclusion
In conclusion, 2025 promises to be a year ripe with opportunities for the real estate market in Montreal and the South Shore. The drop in interest rates, coupled with a relaxation of mortgage rules, is set to ignite a surge in real estate activity, potentially leading to significant profits for savvy investors.
While these measures stimulate demand, they also underscore the importance of buyers being well-prepared and supported. The limited supply of homes for sale in Montreal and on the South Shore continues to exert upward pressure on real estate prices, but with the right preparation, buyers can confidently seize the opportunities that arise.
The buoyancy of the real estate market in 2025 presents a favorable environment for those considering selling their property. Sellers, however, need to be well-advised to optimize the value of their property and attract the right buyers. This is an opportune time, given the prevailing conditions and the enduring allure of Montreal and the South Shore.
Montreal remains a beacon for investors, offering a multitude of attractive opportunities. Its economic dynamism, particularly in sectors like information technology and artificial intelligence, provides a solid foundation for investment. Furthermore, the city's high immigration thresholds have led to a significant increase in demographic growth, particularly in urban centers like Montreal. This growth has created increased demand for rental housing, leading to a steady increase in rents year after year. For investors looking to purchase Plexes or income properties, Montreal is a city of promise and potential.
To navigate this evolving market with confidence, working with a real estate broker specializing in Montreal will help you identify the best opportunities and complete your transaction under the best possible conditions.
